TNG Bracketology: 2023 Playoff Bracket Breakdowns

Now that the field is set, let's dive into the data and project the outcome of each bracket...

Back in the summer, we used our preseason ratings to generate playoff brackets and projected results all the way through the State Championship for Division 1 and Division 2 (you can look back at those by clicking here…they weren’t too bad!).

Well, now that we have official brackets, we can use the same methodology to preview what each round of the playoffs could look like based on each team’s Elo rating that they’ve established through the regular season.

The percentages you’ll see in the images below represent the chance each team has to advance from that round to the next. Those odds represent the cumulative successive odds of each team advancing based on their chances of appearing in that round and then defeating the team shown opposing them in a given round. Think of these projections as simply the “most likely” representatives at each stage based on their path and their rating.

We’ll start by taking a look at the Division 1 bracket. Below each Division's bracket graphic, we’ll break down each region in more detail, including an easy to read odds table, sorted by each team’s chances to win state. Enjoy!

Note: We’ll keep track of the official brackets on our own Google Sheet here:
TNG Official Brackets

Division 1 Projection (double-click to expand/download):

Division 1, Region 1 (1746 avg team Elo, #5 most-difficult bracket):

Best Game of Round 1: Lewisville +2, 55% to win vs Allen
Best Rd 2 Game: Lewisville vs Martin (45% odds to occur, Lewisville 73% to win)
Best Rd 3 Game: North Crowley vs Prosper (63% odds to occur, Prosper 62% to win)

Odds to Reach Regional Final:
Prosper 59%, North Crowley 44%, Keller 2%
vs
Midland Legacy 39%, Lewisville 27%, Allen 19%

Odds to Win Region:
Prosper 41%, North Crowley 20%, Midland Legacy 15%, Lewisville 12%

Division 1, Region 2 (1882 avg team Elo, #2 most-difficult bracket):

Best Games of Round 1:
Rockwall-Heath +3, 57% to win vs Sachse
Bridgeland +4, 60% to win vs Klein Cain
Best Rd 2 Game: Rockwall vs Waxahachie (75% odds to occur, Rockwall 63% to win)
Best Rd 3 Game: Rockwall vs Westfield (47% odds to occur, Westfield 62% to win)

Odds to Reach Regional Final:
Duncanville 86%, Klein Collins 10%, The Woodlands 4%
vs
Spring Westfield 46%, Rockwall 31%, Waxahachie 10%

Odds to Win Region:
Duncanville 76%, Spring Westfield 10%, Klein Collins 6%, Rockwall 5%

Division 1, Region 3 (1928 avg team Elo, #1 most-difficult bracket):

Best Games of Round 1:
Alvin Shadow Creek +6, 66% to win vs Clear Springs
Fort Bend Ridge Point +11, 77% to win vs Katy Tompkins
Best Rd 2 Game: Houston Lamar vs Ridge Point (74% odds to occur, toss-up)
Best Rd 3 Game: Katy vs North Shore (63% odds to occur, North Shore 91% to win)

Odds to Reach Regional Final:
North Shore 90%, Katy 7%, Cy-Fair 2%
vs
Atascocita 55%, Lamar 17%, Dickinson 15%, Ridge Point 12%

Odds to Win Region:
North Shore 82%, Atascocita 10%, Katy 4%, Dickinson/Ridge Point/Lamar 1.0%

Division 1, Region 4 (1633 avg team Elo, #6 most-difficult bracket):

Best Game of Round 1: Vandegrift +14, 81% to win vs Lake Travis
Best Rd 2 Game: Laredo United vs San Benito (65% odds to occur, SB 70% to win)
Best Rd 3 Game: Vandegrift vs SA Brennan (68% odds to occur, Vandegrift 94% to win)

Odds to Reach Regional Final:
Vandegrift 74%, Lake Travis 13%, SA Brennan 10%
vs
Austin Westlake 89%, SA Reagan 7%, San Benito 3%

Odds to Win Region:
Austin Westlake 58%, Vandegrift 36%, Lake Travis 3%

Division 1 Semifinals

Prosper vs Duncanville (31% to occur, DV +18), or…

North Crowley vs Duncanville (15% to occur, DV +22)

and

North Shore vs Westlake (48% to occur, NS +13), or…

North Shore vs Vandegrift (30% to occur, NS +15)

Division 1 State Final Projection

Duncanville vs North Shore (46% to occur, NS +8)

Division 2 Projection (double-click to expand/download):

Division 2, Region 1 (1761 avg team Elo, #4 most-difficult bracket):

**only D2 bracket rated above its D1 counterpart**

Best Game of Round 1: Coppell +3, 57% to win vs Denton Guyer
Best Rd 2 Game: McKinney vs Highland Park (81% odds to occur, McKinney% to win)
Best Rd 3 Game: Byron Nelson vs Coppell (47% odds to occur, Byron Nelson 70% to win)

Odds to Reach Regional Final:
Southlake Carroll 63%, McKinney 19%, Highland Park 14%
vs
Byron Nelson 71%, Coppell 17%, Denton Guyer 10%

Odds to Win Region:
Byron Nelson 47%, Carroll 31%, Coppell 8%

Division 2, Region 2 (1822 avg team Elo, #3 most-difficult bracket):

Best Games of Round 1:
Cedar Hill +5, 63% to win vs Pflugerville Weiss
Cy Falls +8, 69% chance to win vs Tomball
Best Rd 2 Game: Willis vs Tomball Memorial (75% odds to occur, Willis 77% to win)
Best Rd 3 Game: DeSoto vs Willis (75% odds to occur, DeSoto 90% to win)

Odds to Reach Regional Final:
DeSoto 90%, Willis 9%, Tomball Memorial 1%
vs
Cedar Hill 25%, Cy Falls 22%, Oak Ridge 18%, DeKaney 13%

Odds to Win Region:
DeSoto 88%, Willis 8%, Cedar Hill 1%

Division 2, Region 3 (1599 avg team Elo, #7 most-difficult bracket):

Best Game of Round 1: Houston Memorial +2, 54% to win vs Houston Heights
Best Rd 2 Game: CE King vs Clear Falls (87% odds to occur, CE King 65% to win)
Best Rd 3 Game: Hightower vs CE King (54% odds to occur, Hightower 61% to win)

Odds to Reach Regional Final:
Summer Creek 93%, Pearland Dawson 3%, Stratford 3%
vs
Hightower 57%, CE King 29%, Clear Falls 12%, Jordan 1%

Odds to Win Region:
Summer Creek 81%, Hightower 12%, CE King 4%, Clear Falls 1%

Division 2, Region 4 (1487 avg team Elo, #8 most-difficult bracket):

Best Game of Round 1: Converse Judson +4, 61% to win vs SA Clark
Best Rd 2 Game: Weslaco vs SA Jay (72% odds to occur, Weslaco 75% to win)
Best Rd 3 Game: Cibolo Steele vs SA Harlan (63% odds to occur, Steele 91% to win)

Odds to Reach Regional Final:
Steele 89%, Harlan 8%, Harlingen 2%
vs
Dripping Springs 79%, Weslaco 14%, Vista Ridge 3%

Odds to Win Region:
Steele 63%, Dripping Springs 33%, Harlan 2%, Weslaco 2%

Division 2 Semifinals

Byron Nelson vs DeSoto (41% to occur, Desoto +19), or…

Southlake Carroll vs DeSoto (27% to occur, Desoto +22)

and

Steele vs Weslaco (12% to occur, Steele +26), or…

Dripping Springs vs Harlan (6% to occur, Drip +17)

Division 2 State Final Projection

DeSoto vs Summer Creek (47% to occur, Desoto +11)