Following Week 8’s results, a couple of notable changes in the projection have shifted more power toward the Division 2 bracket. Division 1 is still the stronger of the two, especially in Region 2, but the Division 2 bracket now has 12 teams in our latest Top 25 with Austin Vandegrift and Alvin Shadow Creek now projected in Division 2 due to shakeups in their district races. Read on for a summary where each district race currently stands.
Below, we’ll break down each district race, highlighting pivotal games to come, and we’ll project the most likely playoff representatives and potential challengers based on what we know today and based on what the model projects. We’ll update this feature each week until the bracket is officially set after Week 11.
Region 1 Projection:
1-6A
Current Projection:
1. Pebble Hills (Div 1), 2. Franklin (Div 1), 3. Eastwood (Div 2), 4. Eastlake (Div 2)
Contenders: Americas
Notes:
For the second week in a row, results went according to the model projections, so no changes were made to this week’s playoff outlook, except that Franklin moved into the #2 spot in the district projection with their win over Eastlake in Week 8. Pebble Hills and Franklin meet in Week 9 to potentially decide the district title winner. Americas’ chances of making the postseason are slimming quickly. Unless Eastwood, Eastlake, or Franklin drops a game they aren’t supposed to, then, cruelly, it appears Americas will miss out by virtue of a 2-point loss to Eastlake and a 1-point loss to Eastwood.
2-6A
Current Projection:
1. Frenship (Div 2), 2. Legacy (Div 1), 3. Permian (Div 1), 4. SA Central (Div 2)
Contenders: Midland, Odessa
Notes:
What was that we said last week about Permian separating from the pack? Well, Legacy had other plans, beating their fierce rivals 33-25 to take the upper hand in the race for the top D1 seed in the district and to remain alive for the district title. With the win, Legacy is projected to finish in a 3-way tie for the district title with Frenship and Permian all with 4-1 district records. But, with two weeks in the books, this district has shown us only that very little is predictable in this year’s 2-6A race. Even in Elo, all of the teams are fairly close together, so anything could happen yet.
3-6A
Current Projection:
1. North Crowley (Div 1), 2. Boswell (Div 2), 3. Trinity (Div 1), 4. Crowley (Div 2)
Contenders: LD Bell, Weatherford
Notes:
With Week 8 in the books, we’re now projecting Crowley as the 4th playoff rep as the second D2 seed. Crowley, Bell, and Weatherford are projected to finish in a 3-way tie for 4th place, but Crowley would hold the advantage there, given their standing in the positive points tiebreaker as a result of their 14-point win over Weatherford and narrow 4-point loss to Bell. Either Bell or Weatherford would need to cause an upset to get in and knock Crowley out. No changes were made to the projection for the top three here.
4-6A
Current Projection:
1. Carroll (Div 2), 2. Byron Nelson (Div 2), 3. Keller (Div 1), 4. Timber Creek (Div 1)
Contenders: Fossil Ridge, Eaton
Notes:
Eaton’s Week 8 win over Timber Creek kept them alive in the playoff race, but they are going to need some help. Eaton, Fossil Ridge, and Timber Creek are projected to finish in a 3-way tie for 4th and despite the loss to Eaton, Timber Creek still has the advantage in the case of a positive points tiebreaker between the three. As a result, no changes were made to this week’s projections, but Eaton and Fossil Ridge are still alive. Fossil Ridge’s best chance to get in would be to upset Keller in Week 9; the model has them as a 14-pt underdog.
5-6A
Current Projection:
1. Guyer (Div 2), 2. Allen (Div 1), 3. Prosper (Div 1), 4. McKinney (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
No changes to the projection heading into Week 9. We do finally get to see Guyer and Allen square off though.
McKinney defeated Braswell in a crucial Week 6 contest that may end up being the deciding factor in determining the district’s final playoff rep. Guyer, Allen, and Prosper have established themselves among the state’s elite and will be playing for seeding, momentum, and pride with their playoff status unquestioned.
6-6A
Current Projection:
1. Lewisville (Div 1), 2. Coppell (Div 2), 3. Marcus (Div 2), 4. Plano (Div 1)
Contenders: Hebron
Notes:
Week 8 results didn’t change the outlook here. No changes to the above projection or to the comments below.
Coppell crushed Marcus in Week 7 and now projects to finish second behind Lewisville in the district race. Plano defeated Hebron in a key battle which put Plano in pole position to grab the final playoff spot. Plano replacing Hebron also means that Coppell now becomes the top D2 seed. In order to get back into playoff contention, Hebron is now going to have to upset either Coppell or Lewisville in the closing weeks.
7-6A
Current Projection:
1. Highland Park (Div 2), 2. Jesuit (Div 2), 3. Lake Highlands (Div 1), 4. Berkner (Div 1)
Contenders: Pearce, MacArthur
Notes:
Week 8 results didn’t change the outlook here. No changes to the above projection or to the comments below.
Pearce’s Week 6 win over MacArthur vaulted them squarely back into the hunt for a playoff berth, but they are still going to need some help. Berkner controls their own destiny, thanks in no small part to their Week 4 win over Pearce. Highland Park, Jesuit, and Lake Highlands seem sure-fire playoff teams at this point. A Week 11 battle between MacArthur and Berkner could send the race for 4th to a three-way tiebreaker between Berkner, Pearce, and MacArthur if MacArthur were to win that one.
8-6A
Current Projection:
1. Martin (Div 1), 2. SGP (Div 1), 3. Arlington (Div 2), 4. Bowie (Div 2)
Contenders: Lamar
Notes:
SGP defeated Arlington in Week 8 to move up to second in the district projection and send Arlington to third, but that didn’t fundamentally change the playoff projection as both remain in their seeds from last week. Lamar is still in contention if they can grab a win over SGP, Arlington, or Bowie down the stretch. Right now, Lamar is projected to finish just one game out of the playoffs, but they’ll be very light underdogs in each of those contests against the group currently sitting in the 2-4 spots.
Region 2 Projection:
9-6A
Current Projection:
1. Wylie East (Div 1), 2. Naaman (Div 2), 3. Sachse (Div 1), 4. Lakeview Cent. (Div 2)
Contenders: Wylie, North Garland,
Notes:
Apparently it was Sachse’s turn to shake things up in 9-6A as they claimed an impressive 48-29 upset win over Garland. The loss has the Owls in the precarious position of facing a dreaded 3-way positive points tiebreaker that could see them miss the playoff altogether. Sachse is now projected to finish 5-3 in district, while Lakeview Centennial, Wylie, and Garland could all end up at 4-4. We’re still projecting Lakeview Centennial to stay in 4th due to their superior Elo among that group, but with Sachse’s inclusion, Lakeview Centennial now projects as the second D2 seed. This one still looks like it will go to the final snap.
10-6A
Current Projection:
1. Rockwall (Div 1), 2. Rockwall-Heath (Div 2), 3. Horn (Div 1), 4. Royse City (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
No changes were made here except to drop Mesquite from contention with their Week 8 loss to Royse City. Mesquite is still technically alive, but they’d need to beat North Forney this week and beat Rockwall in Week 10, plus have Royse City lose to Tyler Legacy in Week 9. Right now, according to our model, the odds of all those events happening is about 0.4%. Heath and Horn meet in a great Week 9 game that won’t have much impact on the playoff outlook.
11-6A
Current Projection:
1. Duncanville (Div 1), 2. DeSoto (Div 2), 3. Waxahachie (Div 1), 4. Mansfield (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
The projections here didn’t change, but we did drop Lake Ridge from the contender line as more results have come in. Lake Ridge is not officially, mathematically eliminated but the combination of results that would have to happen seem too remote in possibility to seriously consider. This one is just about locked up aside from the final district positioning between Duncanville and DeSoto, but even that won’t affect the playoff seeding.
12-6A
Current Projection:
1. Temple (Div 1), 2. Harker Heights (Div 2), 3. Weiss (Div 2), 4. Bryan (Div 1)
Contenders: Waco Midway, Hutto
Notes:
Hutto so nearly achieved one of the upsets they needed to get back into contention in Week 8’s heartbreaking 31-27 loss to Temple. Still, the Hippos’ hopes are not dashed because they play Bryan and Weiss in Weeks 10 and 11. Midway squeaked by Copperas Cove to keep their hopes alive as well, and just like Hutto, they finish their season against Bryan and Weiss, but in Weeks 9 and 10. Weiss and Bryan are still favored for the final two spots based on their current Elos, but with games remaining against their key contenders, they are far from assured in their projection.
13-6A
Current Projection:
1. New Caney (Div 2), 2. The Woodlands (Div 1), 3. Oak Ridge (Div 2), 4. Conroe (Div 1)
Contenders: Willis, College Park
Notes:
The overall projection in district 13-6A didn’t change with Week 8’s results, but Week 9 brings a matchup between College Park and Oak Ridge that, with a College Park win, would further cloud the outlook for the race for the final two playoff spots. An Oak Ridge win would certainly help the War Eagles nail down a spot, but it wouldn’t do much for the race for 4th, as College Park and Conroe would still have much to play for in their Week 11 clash that could still result in a 3-way tie for fourth between Conroe, Willis, and College Park.
14-6A
Current Projection:
1. Westfield (Div 1), 2. Spring (Div 1), 3. DeKaney (Div 2), 4. Eisenhower (Div 2)
Contenders: Nimitz, Davis
Notes:
Week 8 results didn’t change the outlook here. No changes to the above projection or to the comments below.
Eisenhower staked their claim to the final playoff spot here with a huge victory over Nimitz in Week 6, but they’ll need to keep their focus and not get upset themselves against Davis in Week 9. If Davis emerges and takes the 4th playoff spot, it would actually knock Westfield to the Division 2 bracket.
15-6A
Current Projection:
1. Collins (Div 1), 2. Cain (Div 1), 3. Tomball (Div 2), 4. Klein (Div 2)
Contenders: Klein Forest, Tomball Memorial
Notes:
Week 9 will be the pivotal week in the 15-6A race as the Top 6 all face each other. Collins and Cain battle for the district title and for the top seed in D1, while Tomball faces Klein Forest and Tomball Memorial faces Klein. Our model still has Collins, Tomball, and Klein as favorites in those games, so our projection will hold for now, if only for another week.
16-6A
Current Projection:
1. Bridgeland (Div 1), 2. Cy Ranch (Div 1), 3. Cy Falls (Div 2), 4. Cy Woods (Div 2)
Contenders: Langham Creek, Cy Springs
Notes:
Bridgeland defeated Cy Ranch in Week 8 to claim the top spot in the district and the top seed in the D1 bracket, while Cy Falls beat Cy Woods impressively to take over the top D2 seed. Langham Creek defeated Cy Springs in Week 8, 32-31, completing their fourth consecutive game decided by a FG or less(!). Springs and Langham are still alive as both still have games against those above them. Springs would need to win two of three against Falls, Woods, and Bridgeland to have a good shot and Langham Creek would need to upset Cy Ranch to get away from their current tiebreak disadvantage to Cy Woods. There’s still plenty to keep an eye on in this race.
Region 3 Projection:
17-6A
Current Projection:
1. Cy-Fair (Div 1), 2. Stratford (Div 2), 3. Jersey Village (Div 1), 4. Cy Creek (Div 2)
Contenders: Memorial
Notes:
The notes below and projection above were both unchanged after Week 8.
This one looks nearly set, barring Memorial springing a big upset down the stretch. Cy Creek’s Week 5 win over Memorial will likely get them into the postseason. Cy-Fair basically wrapped up the district title with back to back double-digit wins over Stratford and Jersey Village.
18-6A
Current Projection:
1. Lamar (Div 1), 2. Heights (Div 2), 3. Westside (Div 1), 4. Westbury (Div 2)
Contenders:
Notes:
The notes below and projection above were both unchanged after Week 8.
Lamar and Heights are locks at the top of this district, while Westbury and Westside look most likely to take the final two playoff spots. Sam Houston and Bellaire still have a longshot to grab a playoff spot, but it looks increasingly unlikely based on their Elos.
19-6A
Current Projection:
1. Katy (Div 2), 2. Cinco Ranch (Div 1), 3. Tompkins (Div 1), 4. Morton Ranch (Div 2)
Contenders: Jordan
Notes:
The notes below and projection above were both unchanged after Week 8.
Cinco brought some stability to the playoff outlook here with their win over Jordan in Week 7 and with Morton Ranch holding serve by defeating Taylor. Tompkins and Morton Ranch have a big game on Thursday night in Week 8 in one of the last apparent opportunities for significant upheaval in the broader district race. A Morton Ranch win in Week 8 could open up a possibility for a 3-way tie between Morton Ranch, Tompkins, and Jordan for the final playoff spot if Jordan could then upset Morton Ranch in Week 11. If Tompkins wins this week, then just about the only thing left to be determined will be who wins between Morton Ranch and Jordan in that critical Week 11 game which would likely decide 4th place.
20-6A
Current Projection:
1. Ridge Point (Div 1), 2. Hightower (Div 2), 3. George Ranch (Div 1), 4. Clements (Div 2)
Contenders: Travis, Dulles
Notes:
The notes below and projection above were both unchanged after Week 8, except that Dulles replaced Elkins as an outside contender.
Clements beat Travis in Week 7 to jump into the playoff projection for this week, while George Ranch held their spot with a win over Bush. With Clements joining the fray, George Ranch gets bumped into D1, while Clements takes the 2nd D2 spot, setting up a potential Round 1 rematch with Katy. George Ranch and Clements are in good position now, but can’t afford to slip up down the stretch or risk bringing Travis and Dulles back into the mix. Ridge Point and Hightower are locked into the top seeds in D1 and D2, respectively.
21-6A
Current Projection:
1. North Shore (Div 1), 2. Atascocita (Div 1), 3. Summer Creek (Div 2), 4. CE King (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
The notes below and projection above were both unchanged after Week 8.
No surprises here; the top four are all but guaranteed playoff spots if they keep anywhere near their current form, barring a shocking upset down the stretch. The only remaining drama to be played out is just a set of great football games between the top four to determine Division 1 and Division 2 seeding.
22-6A
Current Projection:
1. Deer Park (Div 1), 2. Channelview (Div 2), 3. Dobie (Div 1), 4. Memorial (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
Channelview upset Dobie to move into the #2 spot in the district race, still giving them a shot at the district title if they can upset Deer Park in Week 9. Channelview’s win over Dobie didn’t alter the playoff positioning though, as they are still the top D2 seed. Pasadena Memorial could lose to Pasadena and still just fall into a tie with South Houston and they hold a head to head tiebreaker over them, so South Houston was dropped from the contender line. This one is basically set.
23-6A
Current Projection:
1. Shadow Creek (Div 2), 2. Dawson (Div 2), 3. Pearland (Div 1), 4. Alief Taylor (Div 1)
Contenders: Strake Jesuit
Notes:
Week 8 brought lots of changes to the 23-6A race. With Pearland losing to Dawson, not only did the Oilers fall from the #2 spot in district to #3, but they now need to beat Alief Taylor in Week 9 in order to avoid facing a potential elimination game in Week 10 against Strake Jesuit. A win for Strake against Pearland in Week 10 could see them through to the postseason despite their crucial loss to Alief Taylor in Week 8, which vaulted the Lions into a great position in the playoff hunt. Taylor now only has to defeat Elsik in Week 11 to be in the playoffs. With Taylor’s inclusion, Shadow Creek is bumped from Div1 to Div2.
24-6A
Current Projection:
1. Dickinson (Div 1), 2. Clear Falls (Div 2), 3. Clear Springs (Div 1), 4. Clear Lake (Div 2)
Contenders: Brazoswood
Notes:
The notes below and projection above were both unchanged after Week 8.
The district outlook was made quite a bit clearer with Week 7’s results, even if our model is now projecting a 3-way tie for the district title between Dickinson, Clear Falls, and Clear Springs. If it does end that way, it appears that Dickinson would win a positive points tiebreaker to be the top seed in Div1. Below that group, Clear Lake continues to look the most likely to grab the 4th playoff spot especially with Brazoswood taking a loss against Clear Springs. However, Brazoswood will get their chance to play their way in, potentially, with a Week 11 game against Clear Lake. Each of the teams in contention have tricky games ahead and these teams are pretty well-balanced, so there’s still plenty to play for.
Region 4 Projection:
25-6A
Current Projection:
1. Vandegrift (Div 2), 2. Round Rock (Div 1), 3. Vista Ridge (Div 2), 4. Cedar Ridge (Div 1)
Contenders: Manor
Notes:
Vandegrift beat Round Rock to virtually assure themselves of the district title with 3 games left on the schedule, continuing an incredibly impressive season for the Vipers. Round Rock’s position in second seems all but assured at this point too, but aside from those two things, nothing is assured in this wild district race. A keen observer will note that Vandegrift is now listed as the top seed in Div2 and that’s thanks to Cedar Ridge’s stunning 22-0 win over Manor. The win puts the Raiders in an outstanding position to make the postseason so long as they beat McNeil in Week 11, and since they have a higher enrollment than Vandegrift, the Vipers would go Div2. Manor is likely out of the playoffs, even if they win out, unless they can defeat Vista Ridge by 14 or more in Week 9 (our model has them a 4pt fav) to activate a secondary three-way tiebreaker. Right now, the model is projecting a three-way tie between Vista Ridge, Manor, and Cedar Ridge and, incredibly, a 14+ point win for Manor over Vista Ridge would tie all three on a positive points tiebreaker, which would trigger a positive points calculation across each of their entire district schedules. Manor would then have a chance to qualify, but again, only if they beat Vista Ridge by 14 or more. Madness. Cedar Ridge appears to be in the best shape of the three in any permutation of tiebreakers, but they absolutely must beat McNeil; our model gives them an 84% chance to do just that.
26-6A
Current Projection:
1. Westlake (Div 1), 2. Dripping Springs (Div 2), 3. Lake Travis (Div 1), 4. Bowie (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
In Week 8, Westlake left no doubt as to their status with an impressive win over Dripping Springs, while Bowie hammered Buda Johnson to guarantee their playoff spot. The playoff seeding in this one is all wrapped up. Only the final district standing between Drip and Lake Travis remains to be decided.
27-6A
Current Projection:
1. Steele (Div 1), 2. Judson (Div 2), 3. New Braunfels (Div 1), 4. San Marcos (Div 2)
Contenders: Schertz Clemens, SA East Central
Notes:
The notes below and projection above were both unchanged after Week 8.
After one week of district play, our model is still projecting the same playoff participants in the same order as last week. San Marcos did register an important win over Schertz Clemens to give them an inside track to that 4th playoff spot, while Clemens and East Central will have to cause some chaos and get some help to become factors in the race. Steele has distanced themselves from the rest of the district with their continued excellent play.
28-6A
Current Projection:
1. Reagan (Div 1), 2. Brandeis (Div 2), 3. Johnson (Div 1), 4. Churchill (Div 2)
Contenders: Clark
Notes:
Churchill came from nowhere to beat Clark 24-7 in Week 8 which now has them in fantastic position to grab the fourth playoff spot in the district. The Chargers were 20-point underdogs! Clark will now have to upset Brandeis in Week 10 or hope that Churchill loses to Marshall or Lee to get back into the playoffs.
29-6A
Current Projection:
1. Brennan (Div 1), 2. Taft (Div 1), 3. Warren (Div 2), 4. Harlan (Div 2)
Contenders: O’Connor, Stevens
Notes:
It was just too simple last week, wasn’t it? Warren threw a wrench in the works with their dominant 40-12 (!) win over O’Connor, which now puts things in motion for a three-way tie for two playoff spots between O’Connor, Harlan, and Warren. In that case, Warren and Harlan would be the two playoff participants and O’Connor would be out. If that weren’t enough drama, Stevens could toss that out the window with a win over O’Connor or Warren in the next two weeks. Stevens will be less than a two TD underdog in both. If they win both, they’ll be in. O’Connor will now need Stevens to beat Warren or would need Harlan to lose to Jay to get back in the playoffs.
30-6A
Current Projection:
1. Eagle Pass (Div 2), 2. United (Div 1), 3. United South (Div 1), 4. Alexander (Div 2)
Contenders: Del Rio
Notes:
The notes below and projection above were both unchanged after Week 8.
After their Week 7 win over United South, United moves up to 2nd in the district projection, bumping Alexander to 4th. Del Rio’s upset win over Laredo Johnson in Week 7, put them in reach of a playoff spot if they can manage to beat Alexander in Week 10.
31-6A
Current Projection:
1. Edinburg North (Div 1), 2. Edinburg (Div 2), 3. PSJA (Div 1), 4. Mission (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
The notes below and projection above were both unchanged after Week 8.
The top four in this district could go any number of ways, but barring any substantial upsets, there doesn’t appear to be a strong candidate outside of that group to challenge for a spot unless La Joya pops up with a sizeable upset along the way.
32-6A
Current Projection:
1. Harlingen (Div 2), 2. San Benito (Div 1), 3. Weslaco (Div 2), 4. Los Fresnos (Div 1)
Contenders: None
Notes:
The notes below and projection above were both unchanged after Week 8 except that Weslaco beat Los Fresnos to take over the #3 spot.
This top 4 is even further distanced from the bottom two than the previous district, with only the playoff seeding yet to be determined. Harlingen vs San Benito in Week 9 is shaping up to be a great one; potentially a battle of undefeateds for the district title. Don’t count out Los Fresnos and Weslaco, who’ve also had great starts to their seasons.
This is the best high school football site I’ve ever seen. Simply amazing the work y’all do here.
As a football recruiting freak, I love high school football almost as much as the college game. I wish there was something similar for the lower classes, but 6A is the best by far
This site is awesome! Thank you for what you do! I do think Prosper is going to beat Allen to secure the better D1 seed for that district. And I thought that before watching them get drilled last night, but definitely now. The only thing I worry about is that Prosper hasn't played a tough team in a month while Allen has had two tough games with Guyer and Mckinney going into next Friday. Should be fun though regardless, and I look forward to watching it in person.