TNG Timeline: Austin Westlake
Visualizing the Chaps' rise to the pinnacle
We’re going to kick off our TNG Timeline series with none other than the reigning 3-time defending state champions, the Austin Westlake Chaparrals. The purpose of this feature is to highlight some of the very best programs in the state and to help provide some historical context behind our Elo ratings system referenced throughout the blog (see our methodology/primer here). We started collecting data for our ratings system beginning with the 2008 season, so all of our analysis will use that as the anchor point. The red line in the chart below represents Westlake’s TNG Elo Rating over time, while the gray in the background represents the range of ratings of the rest of the teams in the state. The orange dotted line across the middle represents the statewide average rating. We’ll use this same style of visualization for each of the teams featured in this section.
Taking a look at Westlake’s TNG Elo Ratings timeline pictured above, we can quickly get a sense for how the program evolved relative to the rest of the state. After a state title appearance in 2009, the Chaps followed that up with four seasons of above average football, compared to the rest of the state, before hiring Todd Dodge in 2014. Dodge wasted little time in taking Westlake to new heights. A guy named Sam Ehlinger at QB helped a bit too. Ehlinger was named Offensive Player of the Year in Westlake’s 2015 title run which ended in an overtime defeat to the North Shore Mustangs. From that point forward, Dodge’s Westlake remained among the state’s elite. Westlake would go on to post a state regional final appearance, two state semifinal appearances, and a state title appearance over the next four seasons, knocking on the door of greatness.
Then, in 2019, the program showed up to the door with a battering ram.
Following a 1-point defeat at the hands of arch-rivals Lake Travis in October 2019, Westlake reeled off 40 consecutive wins and three 6A State Championships - a truly legendary run which is still in progress heading into the 2022 season. In fact, the 2021 Westlake squad achieved the highest Elo rating any team has ever reached at any point in our database dating back to 2008, and they aren’t done yet. Though Todd Dodge retired after last season’s state title, the program was left in the ever-capable hands of Tony Salazar who was the mastermind behind the Chaps suffocating defenses during Dodge’s tenure.
Westlake enters 2022 as our clear #1 rated team: TNG Preseason Top 50
See below for videos corresponding to the chart annotations above:
2009: Lost in overtime to Euless Trinity, 41-38, in one of the all-time great State Championship games.
2014: Todd Dodge hired
2015: An overtime loss (again) to North Shore in the title game, but the clear trend is almost straight up from late regular season and on. Junior Sam Ehlinger wins Offensive Player of the Year.
2019: Ring 1 of 3 under Dodge - Kirkland Michaux leads 15-1 Chaps to a state championship with a 24-0 shutout of Denton Guyer.
2020: Ring 2 of 3 under Dodge - Dodge gets the better of his former team and head coach son, Riley Dodge, for his second title in a row. Klubnik outduels Ewers.
2021: Ring 3 of 3 under Dodge - One of the best high school football teams we’ve ever witnessed here at TNG. Klubnik and Dodge cap off two of the greatest careers ever. Dodge rides off into the sunset.
I'm curious how you think the one-two punch of losing Klubnik and Dodge in the same year is going to affect this squad going forward.