TNG 2023 6A Preseason Top 50 Rankings
The main course of our second annual preseason preview
Welcome to our second annual TNG Preseason State Top 50, previewing the 2023 6A Texas High School Football season. This is the feature post within our 2023 Season Preview.
After claiming the school’s first State Title since 1998 and the first for legendary Coach Reginald Samples, Duncanville opens as our preseason #1. The Panthers come into 2023 poised to be potentially better than the squad that finally took down the North Shore Mustangs after being denied three previous times. Duncanville returns three of the decisive players in that title win in QB Keelon Russell, whose long TD run changed the course of the game, RB Caden Durham, and unblockable Edge Collin Simmons. So loaded are the Panthers that only North Shore and district rival (and fellow defending state champ) DeSoto appear to have any chance of keeping pace. North Shore, even after losing Coach Kay to the college ranks, is favorited to meet Duncanville for a 5th time in 6 years to decide the D1 championship. The Mustangs add a healthy Kaleb Bailey at QB, 4-star WR Deion Deblanc, and DB Lavonte Johnson from CE King to a roster with 11 other All-District starters from last year’s squad. Believe it or not, DeSoto returns more experience than both North Shore and Duncanville coming off their first title since 2016 and the first for HC Claude Mathis.
The top three in the state have put such distance between themselves and the rest of the state that it would seem half-crazy to pick anyone outside of those three to win one of the two titles. Take note of the fact that in the rankings table below, there are about 200 Elo points separating DeSoto at #3 to Westlake at #4; that same 200 point gap covers the distance between Westlake at #4 to nearly The Woodlands at #13, and also covers the gap from Byron Nelson at #25 to DeKaney at #48! With that context, you can not only appreciate the dominance of the top three, but you can see how the ratings naturally group the top teams in the state into virtual tiers, where the teams inside of those tiers are all relatively close to one another.
Vandegrift is a notable addition to our Top 5. After a historic 2022, the Vipers return many key contributors to that run and were able to fill in some of their biggest holes through serendipitous transfers, most significantly one of the state’s top returning QBs in Deuce Adams. The Vipers are favorites to meet DeSoto in the D2 final. Vandegrift checks in just behind a Westlake squad that still manages a Top 5 rating even after projecting a fairly decent falloff from the incredible heights they’d reached in the previous four seasons. We’re still projecting Jack Kayser and Paxton Land to lead the Chaps to the semis.
Looking at the rest of the Top 10, Southlake Carroll checks in at #6 with what should be an outstanding offense led by returning QB Graham Knowles and transfer 4-star RB Riley Wormley. Westfield is #7 on the strength of an outstanding-looking defense. Lewisville may be the biggest surprise entry in the Top 10, but the Farmers have been on a clear upward ascent and they return 12 All-District performers from last year’s squad that made the D1 Region 1 Final. Katy finds itself #9 due to a strong core of returning players and an exciting young crop of players coming through the ranks. Right on the heels of the Tigers are the Atascocita Eagles who will have their chance to notch their first win over Katy when the two meet in Week 2 in Humble.
Beyond the Top 10, the most notable movers are Cibolo Steele at #11, possibly underrated, with a phenomenal set of young skill talent. We’ve got Lake Travis making a bit of return to form after a tough 2022 season, checking in at #14. District mates Ridge Point and Hightower are both expected to make decent leaps forward at #18 and #21 respectively. Tompkins should challenge Katy for the district crown yet again, checking in at #22 on the strength of their defense.
Further down the ranks, Willis at #30 is projected to make a huge leap forward with QB D.J. Lagway coming back healthy to lead a loaded group of skill talent under Coach Trent Miller. Mesquite Horn, Midland Legacy, and Wolfforth Frenship are also projected to make large jumps forward, returning highly experienced and talented squads from last year.
To see if your team made the cut, read on below. To see where your team stands in the district picture and to see their state and regional rankings, head on over to our Regional Previews here: Region1 Preview, Region 2 Preview, Region 3 Preview, Region 4 Preview
As we get closer to the season, we’ll go into more depth on the rankings as well as everything you see in our 2023 Season Preview in our Preseason podcast series in late July and early August.
For more on our rating system and methodology, click here and catch up on changes to our process in 2023, here.
TNG Preseason Top 50 Ratings developed as a combination of each team’s returning players, where they left off last year, and their recent history. To read more about our process, check out: TNG Ratings Origin and Methodology